If the U.S. Senate Elections were held on 07-Nov-2006...

Expected breakdown: 49.6 Republican, 50.4 Democrat or Independent

Chance of Democratic Takeover: 53.4 percent

Notes for 11/17/06

Some readers pointed out that undecided voters are thought to vote for a challenger more frequently than for an incumbent -- the rule of thumb is a ratio of two to one. That may be the case historically, but not in this election; assigning undecideds in this way increased the error for both methods. My standard approach, which assigns the undecideds 50/50 to each candidate, outperformed this variation in ten of the thirteen races. The mean error of the Kalman Filter with this variation increased to 3.62; for the RCP, it increased to 3.56.

You can find detailed results and check my math in this spreadsheet. (.csv)

Finally -- there's always more to do. All these results are based on the polls that were available on election day. It would be interesting to see how the methods compare when using the polls a week before the election, and a month before. Since polling data is sparser then, I'd like to think the Kalman filter would have an even greater advantage -- but that remains to be seen. I'd also like to see how accurate my estimates of polling house bias were, and whether including this bias in the model actually improved its performance.

Notes for 11/7/06

A few readers have noticed that the chance of a Democratic takeover is much higher today than over the past few days. A few polls came out very recently that showed big leads for Democratic candidates in Virginia, Missouri, and Montana, which other polls show as tied. For example, in the last ten polls in Virginia, neither candidate had more than a three point edge; but then SurveyUSA releases a poll showing an 8-point lead for the Jim Webb, the Democrat. The situation in Missouri is a little less confusing, since both Gallup and SurveyUSA now show subtantial leads for the Democrat, although a Rasmussen poll released the same day shows a tied race. It's surprising to me that polling numbers would diverge so significantly on the last day when they had been fairly consistent for the previous two weeks. At any rate, although I have a lot of faith in the method of combining polls that I'm presenting here, keep in mind that the rule of "garbage in, garbage out" still applies. The good news is that we won't have to wait long to find out which pollster was right.

Brief explanation

In these graphs, the dark line represents the estimated true level of support for each candidate, with red indicating the republican candidate, blue for the democrat, and green for the independent. The circles represent individual poll results, and the shaded areas represent confidence intervals. These estimates are computed using the Kalman Filter, a statistical technique that combines all previous observations, weighting recent observations more heavily. The chance of winning each seat is based on the estimated difference in support, and the confidence intervals around that estimate; again, this assumes that the election is being held today; future events will shape the actual election results, and predicting the future is not within the capabilities of this method.

More details can be found here.

Summary

• Arizona. R = 49.7, D = 41.3
• California. R = 30.5, D = 58.4
• Connecticut. R = 7.6, I = 48.4, D = 39.8
• Florida. R = 33.6, D = 59.3
• Maryland. R = 44.2, D = 49.6
• Michigan. R = 39.1, D = 52.3
• Minnesota. R = 37.9, D = 54.6
• Missouri. R = 46.1, D = 48.7
• Montana. R = 43.8, D = 48.4
• Nevada. R = 53.9, D = 40.5
• New Jersey. R = 41.7, D = 48.7
• New Mexico. R = 34.4, D = 57.4
• New York. R = 30.4, D = 63.6
• Ohio. R = 41.9, D = 53.5
• Pennsylvania. R = 40.2, D = 53.0
• Rhode Island. R = 43.7, D = 46.9
• Tennessee. R = 50.4, D = 44.4
• Texas. R = 61.0, D = 31.5
• Virginia. R = 46.4, D = 48.6
• Washington. R = 41.1, D = 53.5
• Wisconsin. R = 26.3, D = 64.0

Arizona

99.0 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 49.7 +- 3.4 Democrat: 41.3 +- 3.4

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 51.3 38.6 53.0 40.0 1.7 1.4 11/01 SurveyUSA 49.2 41.1 49.0 41.0 -0.2 -0.1 11/01 Mason 49.9 44.5 50.0 46.0 0.1 1.5 10/31 Polimetrix 46.9 41.0 46.0 41.0 -0.9 0.0 10/27 Zimmerman 50.4 39.6 52.0 44.0 1.6 4.4 10/25 Zogby 48.5 42.6 47.0 41.0 -1.5 -1.6 10/20 Arizona State U. 48.4 42.4 51.0 42.0 2.6 -0.4 10/15 Rasmussen 46.3 41.6 48.0 43.0 1.7 1.4 10/15 SurveyUSA 48.7 35.1 49.0 33.0 0.3 -2.1 10/13 Northern Arizona U. 48.4 39.6 50.0 44.0 1.6 4.4 10/13 Zogby Corrected Raw Bias

California

0.0 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 30.5 +- 3.5 Democrat: 58.4 +- 3.5

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 30.4 58.9 31.0 60.0 0.6 1.1 11/03 SurveyUSA 28.2 60.2 29.0 61.0 0.8 0.8 10/31 Polimetrix 32.7 53.5 33.0 55.0 0.3 1.5 10/26 Field Poll 32.4 57.9 33.0 59.0 0.6 1.1 10/24 SurveyUSA 38.2 56.2 39.0 57.0 0.8 0.8 10/23 Polimetrix 25.7 53.2 23.0 53.0 -2.7 -0.2 09/26 Mason 35.1 53.0 36.0 54.0 0.9 1.0 09/25 LA Times 34.4 53.9 35.0 55.0 0.6 1.1 09/25 SurveyUSA 28.7 55.5 29.0 57.0 0.3 1.5 09/19 Field Poll 36.6 50.4 38.0 49.0 1.4 -1.4 09/13 Datamar Corrected Raw Bias

Connecticut

0.0 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 7.6 +- 2.9 Independent: 48.4 +- 2.9 Democrat: 39.8 +- 2.9

Last 10 polls R I D R I D R I D Date Pollster 8.4 47.7 38.9 9.0 49.0 38.0 0.6 1.3 -0.9 11/03 SurveyUSA 7.9 48.4 39.7 8.0 50.0 38.0 0.1 1.6 -1.7 11/02 Quinnipiac U. 5.8 48.2 42.7 5.0 48.0 44.0 -0.8 -0.2 1.3 10/31 Polimetrix 7.2 50.3 39.2 7.0 51.0 39.0 -0.2 0.7 -0.2 10/31 Research 2000 8.0 49.1 39.1 9.0 48.0 40.0 1.0 -1.1 0.9 10/28 Rasmussen 7.9 47.4 38.7 8.0 49.0 37.0 0.1 1.6 -1.7 10/27 Quinnipiac U. 8.8 49.1 36.9 8.0 49.0 37.0 -0.8 -0.1 0.1 10/27 Zogby 8.0 49.1 39.1 9.0 48.0 40.0 1.0 -1.1 0.9 10/26 Rasmussen 6.8 47.1 42.9 6.0 47.0 43.0 -0.8 -0.1 0.1 10/25 Zogby 9.0 49.8 36.5 9.0 49.0 37.0 -0.0 -0.8 0.5 10/19 ARG Corrected Raw Bias

Florida

0.0 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 33.6 +- 3.1 Democrat: 59.3 +- 3.1

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 34.5 59.4 36.0 59.0 1.5 -0.4 11/03 SurveyUSA 29.5 60.9 31.0 60.0 1.5 -0.9 11/01 Zogby 34.4 58.5 34.0 58.0 -0.4 -0.5 10/31 Mason 33.9 59.7 34.0 60.0 0.1 0.3 10/31 Polimetrix 38.5 54.9 40.0 54.0 1.5 -0.9 10/25 Zogby 32.1 61.2 29.0 64.0 -3.1 2.8 10/20 Quinnipiac U. 31.4 57.5 31.0 57.0 -0.4 -0.5 10/16 Mason 35.5 54.9 37.0 54.0 1.5 -0.9 10/13 Zogby 35.5 55.4 37.0 55.0 1.5 -0.4 10/08 SurveyUSA 36.1 58.2 33.0 61.0 -3.1 2.8 10/05 Quinnipiac U. Corrected Raw Bias

Maryland

2.7 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 44.2 +- 2.6 Democrat: 49.6 +- 2.6

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 43.9 50.5 46.0 49.0 2.1 -1.5 11/04 SurveyUSA 44.0 48.1 44.0 47.0 0.0 -1.1 11/02 Mason 44.9 48.5 47.0 47.0 2.1 -1.5 11/01 SurveyUSA 44.8 49.8 45.0 50.0 0.2 0.2 11/01 Rasmussen 44.8 50.5 45.0 51.0 0.2 0.5 10/31 Polimetrix 43.7 48.8 43.0 49.0 -0.7 0.2 10/29 Potomac Inc. 44.6 48.7 44.0 49.0 -0.6 0.3 10/27 Zogby 41.8 48.8 42.0 49.0 0.2 0.2 10/26 Rasmussen 44.6 52.7 44.0 53.0 -0.6 0.3 10/25 Zogby 43.2 52.9 43.0 54.0 -0.2 1.1 10/24 Washington Post Corrected Raw Bias

Michigan

0.0 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 39.1 +- 3.0 Democrat: 52.3 +- 3.0

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 40.4 51.7 42.0 52.0 1.6 0.3 11/03 SurveyUSA 36.8 52.8 34.0 53.0 -2.8 0.2 11/01 Selzer 37.6 52.8 37.0 53.0 -0.6 0.2 11/01 Mason 39.7 54.1 40.0 55.0 0.3 0.9 10/31 Polimetrix 39.7 50.9 38.0 51.0 -1.7 0.1 10/31 EPIC 39.7 51.9 38.0 52.0 -1.7 0.1 10/28 EPIC 38.7 49.8 42.0 49.0 3.3 -0.8 10/25 Zogby 40.6 51.7 41.0 52.0 0.4 0.3 10/23 Research 2000 39.7 49.9 38.0 50.0 -1.7 0.1 10/23 EPIC 42.4 50.7 44.0 51.0 1.6 0.3 10/23 SurveyUSA Corrected Raw Bias

Minnesota

0.0 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 37.9 +- 2.8 Democrat: 54.6 +- 2.8

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 38.1 55.8 40.0 56.0 1.9 0.2 11/04 SurveyUSA 37.1 52.8 34.0 54.0 -3.1 1.2 11/01 Star Tribune 38.4 54.1 40.0 54.0 1.6 -0.1 11/01 Rasmussen 38.7 56.1 39.0 57.0 0.3 0.9 10/31 Polimetrix 34.3 54.6 33.0 55.0 -1.3 0.4 10/25 U. of Minnesota 37.4 53.1 39.0 53.0 1.6 -0.1 10/25 Rasmussen 39.5 50.7 40.0 50.0 0.5 -0.7 10/25 Mason 40.2 50.8 43.0 51.0 2.8 0.2 10/25 Zogby 37.1 54.8 39.0 55.0 1.9 0.2 10/22 SurveyUSA 32.8 55.2 31.0 56.0 -1.8 0.8 10/21 St. Cloud U. Corrected Raw Bias

Missouri

12.6 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 46.1 +- 2.1 Democrat: 48.7 +- 2.1

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 49.4 48.4 49.0 48.0 -0.4 -0.4 11/05 Rasmussen 44.6 48.8 44.0 50.0 -0.6 1.2 11/05 SurveyUSA 42.6 49.8 42.0 51.0 -0.6 1.2 11/04 SurveyUSA 44.6 48.4 45.0 49.0 0.4 0.6 11/02 Gallup 48.4 49.4 48.0 49.0 -0.4 -0.4 11/02 Rasmussen 46.1 46.8 45.0 46.0 -1.1 -0.8 11/02 Mason 49.0 49.5 50.0 50.0 1.0 0.5 10/31 Polimetrix 47.4 48.4 47.0 48.0 -0.4 -0.4 10/30 Rasmussen 46.6 47.8 46.0 49.0 -0.6 1.2 10/29 SurveyUSA 48.2 48.5 49.0 49.0 0.8 0.5 10/27 Opinion Research Corrected Raw Bias

Montana

5.8 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 43.8 +- 2.8 Democrat: 48.4 +- 2.8

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 45.3 48.0 48.0 50.0 2.7 2.0 11/04 Rasmussen 41.9 49.2 41.0 50.0 -0.9 0.8 11/02 Gallup 41.9 49.2 41.0 50.0 -0.9 0.8 11/02 Gallup 43.3 48.0 46.0 50.0 2.7 2.0 11/01 Rasmussen 46.3 47.5 47.0 47.0 0.7 -0.5 11/01 Mason 45.2 47.5 46.0 47.0 0.8 -0.5 10/27 Zogby 44.3 49.0 47.0 51.0 2.7 2.0 10/26 Rasmussen 43.3 46.0 46.0 48.0 2.7 2.0 10/18 Rasmussen 42.3 46.5 43.0 46.0 0.7 -0.5 10/18 Mason 36.8 46.3 35.0 46.0 -1.8 -0.3 10/12 Montana State U. Corrected Raw Bias

Nevada

99.9 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 53.9 +- 3.9 Democrat: 40.5 +- 3.9

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 53.3 41.5 53.0 42.0 -0.3 0.5 10/31 Polimetrix 55.3 40.6 54.0 42.0 -1.3 1.4 10/30 Rasmussen 52.0 39.5 54.0 37.0 2.0 -2.5 10/28 Mason 57.1 36.1 58.0 37.0 0.9 0.9 10/25 Zogby 54.0 41.5 55.0 41.0 1.0 -0.5 10/24 Research 2000 51.3 40.6 50.0 42.0 -1.3 1.4 10/17 Rasmussen 51.1 42.1 52.0 43.0 0.9 0.9 10/13 Zogby 56.0 37.5 58.0 35.0 2.0 -2.5 09/20 Mason 51.3 39.6 50.0 41.0 -1.3 1.4 09/06 Rasmussen 55.0 35.5 56.0 35.0 1.0 -0.5 09/06 Research 2000 Corrected Raw Bias

New Jersey

0.5 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 41.7 +- 2.6 Democrat: 48.7 +- 2.6

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 40.3 49.1 40.0 50.0 -0.3 0.9 11/02 Gallup 42.5 46.5 42.0 45.0 -0.5 -1.5 11/02 Monmouth U. 41.2 48.2 41.0 48.0 -0.2 -0.2 11/02 Mason 40.3 49.1 40.0 50.0 -0.3 0.9 11/02 Gallup 41.7 51.3 42.0 50.0 0.3 -1.3 11/02 Marist Coll. 42.6 47.0 43.0 48.0 0.4 1.0 11/02 Quinnipiac U. 42.0 48.6 43.0 48.0 1.0 -0.6 11/01 Rasmussen 45.4 51.6 47.0 53.0 1.6 1.4 10/31 Polimetrix 42.4 46.0 42.0 46.0 -0.4 0.0 10/30 Rutgers 43.0 49.6 44.0 49.0 1.0 -0.6 10/29 Rasmussen Corrected Raw Bias

New Mexico

0.0 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 34.4 +- 6.1 Democrat: 57.4 +- 6.1

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 36.1 56.1 38.0 58.0 1.9 1.9 10/25 Zogby 32.1 60.1 34.0 62.0 1.9 1.9 10/13 Zogby 21.9 63.1 19.0 65.0 -2.9 1.9 09/26 Research and Polling 30.8 55.4 32.0 56.0 1.2 0.6 09/07 Rasmussen 31.1 57.1 33.0 59.0 1.9 1.9 09/01 Zogby 25.9 60.1 23.0 62.0 -2.9 1.9 08/28 Research and Polling 30.1 52.1 32.0 54.0 1.9 1.9 07/15 Zogby 29.8 53.4 31.0 54.0 1.2 0.6 06/27 Rasmussen 34.1 53.1 36.0 55.0 1.9 1.9 06/15 Zogby 28.1 51.1 30.0 53.0 1.9 1.9 03/23 Zogby Corrected Raw Bias

New York

0.0 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 30.4 +- 3.8 Democrat: 63.6 +- 3.8

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 28.0 64.8 28.0 65.0 -0.0 0.2 10/31 Siena Coll. 31.2 62.6 32.0 65.0 0.8 2.4 10/31 Marist Coll. 31.5 65.2 32.0 66.0 0.5 0.8 10/31 Marist 32.2 59.0 33.0 57.0 0.8 -2.0 10/25 Zogby 29.2 64.6 30.0 67.0 0.8 2.4 10/17 Marist Coll. 29.9 62.6 30.0 65.0 0.1 2.4 10/13 Quinnipiac U. 31.2 58.0 32.0 56.0 0.8 -2.0 10/13 Zogby 32.0 58.8 32.0 59.0 -0.0 0.2 10/10 Siena Coll. 27.2 55.0 28.0 53.0 0.8 -2.0 10/07 Zogby 30.9 63.6 31.0 66.0 0.1 2.4 09/28 Quinnipiac U. Corrected Raw Bias

Ohio

0.0 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 41.9 +- 2.7 Democrat: 53.5 +- 2.7

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 42.5 51.3 42.0 54.0 -0.5 2.7 11/04 SurveyUSA 41.9 54.0 44.0 56.0 2.1 2.0 11/03 U. of Cincinnati 42.9 51.9 44.0 50.0 1.1 -1.9 11/01 Mason 40.5 56.8 40.0 58.0 -0.5 1.2 10/31 Polimetrix 39.0 60.2 38.0 62.0 -1.0 1.8 10/29 Columbus Dispatch 42.7 54.4 43.0 54.0 0.3 -0.4 10/27 Opinion Research 42.1 49.5 42.0 49.0 -0.1 -0.5 10/27 Zogby 47.1 49.5 47.0 49.0 -0.1 -0.5 10/25 Zogby 43.6 50.8 44.0 51.0 0.4 0.2 10/24 Opinion Consultants 39.9 53.0 41.0 53.0 1.1 0.0 10/24 Rasmussen Corrected Raw Bias

Pennsylvania

0.0 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 40.2 +- 3.5 Democrat: 53.0 +- 3.5

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 39.0 52.3 39.0 52.0 -0.0 -0.3 11/01 Mason 40.1 55.1 40.0 56.0 -0.1 0.9 10/31 Polimetrix 42.1 52.4 43.0 51.0 0.9 -1.4 10/30 Muhlenberg Coll. 41.4 53.3 42.0 55.0 0.6 1.7 10/28 Rasmussen 37.2 54.4 38.0 53.0 0.8 -1.4 10/27 Keystone Poll 37.9 48.2 40.0 48.0 2.1 -0.2 10/27 Zogby 41.4 53.3 42.0 55.0 0.6 1.7 10/26 Rasmussen 42.0 51.5 42.0 52.0 -0.0 0.5 10/26 Quinnipiac U. 41.9 53.2 44.0 53.0 2.1 -0.2 10/25 Zogby 39.3 50.7 39.0 50.0 -0.3 -0.7 10/23 West Chester U. Corrected Raw Bias

Rhode Island

16.9 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 43.7 +- 3.2 Democrat: 46.9 +- 3.2

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 44.5 46.7 45.0 48.0 0.5 1.3 11/02 Gallup 44.5 46.7 45.0 48.0 0.5 1.3 11/02 Gallup 44.8 45.9 46.0 45.0 1.2 -0.9 11/01 Mason 39.1 51.8 39.0 53.0 -0.1 1.2 10/27 Zogby 33.8 45.1 33.0 43.0 -0.8 -2.1 10/24 Rhode Island Coll. 42.7 48.7 44.0 52.0 1.3 3.3 10/23 Rasmussen 41.8 48.9 43.0 48.0 1.2 -0.9 10/19 Mason 42.4 47.2 42.0 46.0 -0.4 -1.2 10/12 Fleming and Assocs. 40.7 47.7 42.0 51.0 1.3 3.3 10/06 Rasmussen 37.8 42.1 37.0 40.0 -0.8 -2.1 10/03 Rhode Island Coll. Corrected Raw Bias

Tennessee

99.2 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 50.4 +- 2.4 Democrat: 44.4 +- 2.4

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 50.5 46.0 51.0 47.0 0.5 1.0 11/04 Rasmussen 50.5 44.5 51.0 46.0 0.5 1.5 11/04 SurveyUSA 48.9 44.3 49.0 46.0 0.1 1.7 11/02 Gallup 52.5 44.0 53.0 45.0 0.5 1.0 11/02 Rasmussen 50.3 39.9 50.0 38.0 -0.3 -1.9 11/02 Mason 50.8 45.5 51.0 46.0 0.2 0.5 10/31 Polimetrix 48.5 46.0 49.0 47.0 0.5 1.0 10/30 Rasmussen 51.4 44.2 52.0 44.0 0.6 -0.2 10/27 Opinion Research 52.4 42.5 53.0 43.0 0.6 0.5 10/27 Zogby 48.4 47.5 49.0 48.0 0.6 0.5 10/25 Zogby Corrected Raw Bias

Texas

100.0 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 61.0 +- 4.4 Democrat: 31.5 +- 4.4

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 63.7 29.8 65.0 29.0 1.3 -0.8 10/31 Polimetrix 55.4 35.0 55.0 36.0 -0.4 1.0 10/25 Zogby 58.0 35.1 60.0 34.0 2.0 -1.1 10/23 Rasmussen 60.4 27.0 60.0 28.0 -0.4 1.0 10/13 Zogby 48.4 38.0 48.0 39.0 -0.4 1.0 09/01 Zogby 56.0 33.1 58.0 32.0 2.0 -1.1 08/31 Rasmussen 55.4 36.0 55.0 37.0 -0.4 1.0 08/18 Zogby 59.0 32.1 61.0 31.0 2.0 -1.1 08/03 Rasmussen 52.4 36.0 52.0 37.0 -0.4 1.0 07/15 Zogby 56.0 32.1 58.0 31.0 2.0 -1.1 07/13 Rasmussen Corrected Raw Bias

Virginia

20.1 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 46.4 +- 2.5 Democrat: 48.6 +- 2.5

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 43.0 51.5 44.0 52.0 1.0 0.5 11/04 SurveyUSA 48.0 46.4 49.0 46.0 1.0 -0.4 11/02 Gallup 48.0 49.2 49.0 49.0 1.0 -0.2 11/02 Rasmussen 46.1 47.9 45.0 46.0 -1.1 -1.9 11/02 Mason 48.0 46.4 49.0 46.0 1.0 -0.4 11/02 Gallup 49.0 49.4 50.0 50.0 1.0 0.6 10/31 Polimetrix 45.0 48.2 46.0 48.0 1.0 -0.2 10/29 Rasmussen 46.0 49.1 46.0 50.0 -0.0 0.9 10/27 Opinion Research 43.7 43.6 44.0 45.0 0.3 1.4 10/27 Zogby 45.4 43.5 45.0 42.0 -0.4 -1.5 10/25 Roanoke Coll. Corrected Raw Bias

Washington

0.1 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 41.1 +- 3.6 Democrat: 53.5 +- 3.6

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 39.4 53.9 38.0 54.0 -1.4 0.1 11/01 Mason 42.4 55.8 43.0 57.0 0.6 1.2 10/31 Polimetrix 42.3 50.3 43.0 51.0 0.7 0.7 10/28 SurveyUSA 41.1 52.7 41.0 53.0 -0.1 0.3 10/28 U. of Washington 41.0 52.3 41.0 52.0 0.0 -0.3 10/26 Rasmussen 42.5 48.8 46.0 50.0 3.5 1.2 10/25 Zogby 38.4 51.9 37.0 52.0 -1.4 0.1 10/18 Mason 38.0 53.3 38.0 53.0 0.0 -0.3 10/17 Rasmussen 42.3 50.3 43.0 51.0 0.7 0.7 10/14 SurveyUSA 41.5 50.8 45.0 52.0 3.5 1.2 10/13 Zogby Corrected Raw Bias

Wisconsin

0.0 percent chance that the Republican is winning

Republican: 26.3 +- 4.4 Democrat: 64.0 +- 4.4

Last 10 polls R D R D R D Date Pollster 24.8 67.3 24.0 69.0 -0.8 1.7 10/31 Polimetrix 34.0 52.9 38.0 47.0 4.0 -5.9 10/25 Zogby 19.2 69.5 16.0 73.0 -3.2 3.5 10/22 U. of Wisconsin 30.0 55.9 34.0 50.0 4.0 -5.9 10/13 Zogby 31.4 59.1 33.0 60.0 1.6 0.9 09/14 Rasmussen 31.0 55.9 35.0 50.0 4.0 -5.9 09/01 Zogby 29.4 58.1 31.0 59.0 1.6 0.9 08/18 Rasmussen 29.0 56.9 33.0 51.0 4.0 -5.9 08/18 Zogby 25.4 59.1 27.0 60.0 1.6 0.9 07/12 Rasmussen 15.5 62.3 14.0 63.0 -1.5 0.7 06/27 Diversified Research Corrected Raw Bias