function pa = p3(alpha)

pazero = 0.1*(0.8*alpha^2+0.1*alpha + (0.9-0.8*alpha)*(1-alpha));
paone = 0.9*((1-alpha)*(0.8*alpha+0.1) + (0.9*alpha - 0.8*alpha^2));

[pazero/(pazero+paone) paone/(pazero+paone)]

